Nate Silver is an America statistician who was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames — until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries. Under the pseudonym “Poblano”, Silver published predictions related to the 2008 presidential elections of which he accurately predicted the winner of 49 out of 50 states. The only state he missed was Indiana which went with Barack Obama by 1 percentage point. He revealed his identity after establishing his own webiste: fivethirtyeight.com. He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.
Besides being just-damn-fascinating, Silver’s analysis is a decidedly contrarian gauntlet thrown before an unrepentant, spectacle-driven media. The up-and-coming pundit, who cut his teeth forecasting the performance of Major League Baseball players, has a fairly direct explanation of why most projections fail: “Polls are cherry-picked based on their brand name or shock value rather than their track record of accuracy.”
Why Nate Silver?
Math whiz and baseball fan Nate Silver was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames — until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries.
Silver’s considerable smarts are already helping local campaigns build constituencies and strategize. Look for his two books from Penguin in 2009.
Silver’s book, The Signal and The Noise, was published in the United States on September 27, 2012. It reached the New York Times Best Sellers list as #12 for non-fiction hardback books after its first week in print. Sales increased greatly right after the election on November 6, jumping 800% and becoming the second best seller on Amazon. The book describes Silver’s methods of mathematical model building using probability and statistics. Nate uses statistical tools, combining sources of unique data, with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis. Case studies in the book include baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. These different topics illustrate different statistical principles
Having earned a bachelor’s degree from The University of Chicago in 2000, he has since been awarded four honorary doctoral degrees: from Ripon College (2013), The New School (2013), The University of Leuven (2013), and Amherst College (2014).