Tony Seba

Technology Megatrends and Keys to Understanding, Anticipating and Leading Market Disruption.

This is the age of Permanent Disruption where every business in every industry now faces constant existential threats. The combination of exponentially improving technologies, rapidbusiness model innovation, and instant access to global investors are enabling disruptors tocreate new markets and destroy trillions of dollars of incumbent revenues at an ever-faster pace.Trillion dollar industries on the cusp of major disruption include telecoms, energy,transportation, manufacturing, retail, finance, apparel, health care, real estate, construction and education. Traditional strategy is obsolete and choosing to wait until these technologies are fully developed is choosing to be disrupted.

How can you anticipate and lead market disruption rather than be surprised when it is too late for your company or industry to react? How can you become the disruptor rather than disrupted?Tony Seba will present examples of exponential technologies such as robotics, 3D printing,sensors, the internet of things, machine learning, big data, electricity storage, autonomous vehicles, solar, electric vehicles, cloud computing, e-money, and others, and show incisive new business models and product architectures that may soon disrupt your business.

How Silicon Valley is making Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030

We are on the cusp of the most radical transformation in energy in a century. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars are turning the industrial-era energy industry on its head and making the gasoline vehicle obsolete.

Tony Seba’s talk focuses on market disruptions caused by exponential technology improvement, business model innovation, and disruptive product design enabled by this convergence. His new book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation” projects that by 2030:
– All new energy will be provided by solar or wind.
– The architecture of energy will flip from centralized, command-and-control, secretive, and extractive to distributed, mobile, intelligent and participatory.
– Electric Utilities as we know them will be obsolete.
– Oil will be obsolete.
– Nuclear will be obsolete.
– Natural Gas will be obsolete.
– Coal will be obsolete.
– All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.

The technology and market trends that are leading to this $12 trillion/year disruption are well underway.
-The global solar market has grown at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 41% since 2000.
-The cost of Solar PV has decreased by a factor of 222X since 1970.
– Solar has improved its relative cost position by 2,900X relative to nuclear 3,200 relative to natural gas since 1970 and 1,294 times relative to petroleum.

-Unsubsidized utility scale solar is already cheaper than nuclear coal and diesel.

-Unsubsidized rooftop solar will be cheaper than the cost of transmission making central generation obsolete

This is the video of a keynote titled “”Clean Disruption: Why Energy and Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030”

Just like the PC, the Internet, and the cell phone disrupted the old paradigm of information, computing and telecommunications, a new architecture of energy is transforming the century-old centralized, resource-based, utility-centric energy model with a distributed, mobile, knowledge-based, and user-centric model. Homes, buildings, and cars are no longer passive energy consumers but adaptive learning systems with the ability to generate, store, manage, and transmit power intelligently. The implications are far-reaching: conventional energy sources (oil, nuclear, natural gas, and coal), the internal combustion engine, and the utility business models are on the cusp of disruption. Assets will be stranded and conventional energy portfolios will meltdown. This is not in the future. This is now.

Technology megatrends that are disrupting public and private transportation

The next decade will see the most radical changes in public and private transportation in a century. Exponentially improving technologies such as electric vehicles, autonomous (self-driving) vehicles, sensors, the internet-of-things, mobile Internet, Big Data, Open Data and Cloud computing are converging at a rapid pace and are radically transforming the very nature of transportation, including roads and highways, parking, tolls, taxis, buses, trains, and traffic management.

Seba’s book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation” projects that by 2030:
– All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.
– All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving) or semi-autonomous.
– Up to 80% of parking spaces will be redundant.
– Up to 80% of highways will be redundant.
– Taxis as we know them will be obsolete.
– Carsharing will be the norm.

– The concept of individual car ownership will be obsolete.

As they ponder infrastructure investments, transportation authorities, urban planners and policy-makers cannot assume that the future will be like the past. The disruption of energy and transportation will leave trillions of dollars in conventional energy and transportation assets stranded. It will also create new economic opportunities for the entrepreneurs, investors, cities, and countries who anticipate and lead it.

Tony Seba’s keynote address focuses on the megatrends that are reshaping and disrupting public and private transportation and how city planners can stay one step ahead in rethinking and redrawing the transportation landscape in a clean, efficient, and budget-conscious way.